Nigeria’s Economic Future: Beyond Fiscal Rituals to Structural Reform
By Nick Agule
Email: nick.agule@yahoo.co.uk
X: @NickAgule
Facebook: Nick Agule, FCA
16.01.2026
I sat all through this summit yesterday. Kudos to the finance minister who took the time to attend in person to present the 2025 financial performance and the outlook for 2026. While I appreciate the effort and time dedicated to this briefing, I remain concerned that critical issues driving sustainable economic growth were either not addressed or mentioned in passing. While the government has focused on subsidy removals, inflation, and foreign reserves, it has not adequately addressed the fundamentals: power, refining, steel, gas, and agriculture etc.
Current Economic Context
- Nigeria’s GDP output in 2025 was approximately $285 billion, generated by a population of 230 million.
- Comparative benchmarks highlight the gap:
- Qatar: $240 billion output from 3 million people.
- UAE: $570 billion output from 12 million people.
Power generation remains a bottleneck:
- Nigeria: 5,000 megawatts on the grid for 230 million people.
- Qatar: 11,000 megawatts for 3 million people.
- UAE: 45,000 megawatts for 12 million people, with the Barakah Nuclear Plant alone producing 5,600 megawatts – equivalent to Nigeria’s entire grid.
Key Structural Challenges
- Power Sector
- Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) requires unbundling opening it to private investment.
- Insolvent DISCOs need re-privatisation to attract private capital and expertise.
- Agriculture
- Security challenges hinder mechanised farming. Despite having a full-fledged military complete with artillery, armoured, infantry corps etc backed up with the airforce, it took U.S. missiles to dislodge bandits. The President must ask hard questions.
- Industrial-scale agriculture could unlock multi-billion-dollar potential if land is secured.
- Steel Industry
- Plants such as Ajaokuta and Delta remain idle.
- Reviving steel production is essential to reduce import dependency for all products with iron and steel content.
- Refining Capacity
- Current reliance on Dangote Refinery (monopoly) or imports is unsustainable.
- Additional local refining capacity is needed to foster competition and lower prices.
- The NNPCL has proven over the decades incompetence to manage the refineries, it is inexplicable the President is still trusting them!
- Gas Sector
- Numerous gas plants in the Niger Delta remain inactive under NNPCL.
- Revitalisation is critical for energy diversification.
- Rail Infrastructure
- Existing tracks, such as Port Harcourt – Maiduguri, require rehabilitation to restore services.
Strategic Imperatives
- Federal budget of $40 billion is insufficient to drive transformation alone.
- Private sector participation is essential, bringing capital, technology, and expertise.
- Telecoms provide a successful model: MTN and others have invested over $100 billion in direct foreign and local investment, not loans that disappear without commensurate projects.
Conclusion
Nigeria must shift focus from short-term fiscal measures to long-term structural reforms. Power, agriculture, steel, refining, gas, and rail are pillars that require urgent leadership attention. Unlocking these sectors will position Nigeria on the path toward a multi-trillion-dollar economy. Without these heavy-liftings, these annual gatherings risk creating the illusion that we are making significant progress. The reality is stark – we are not.
Nick Agule is lover of Nigeria and a public affairs analyst
