4.43% GDP Growth: Why Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda Is Beginning to Deliver

By Olumide Bajulaiye

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s declaration that “the Renewed Hope Agenda is working” is increasingly backed by a combination of improving economic indicators, rising production and stronger investor confidence.

The latest GDP figure showing Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025, provides the Tinubu administration with a strong basis to argue that its economic reforms are moving the country in the right direction.

The payoff from difficult decisions.

When the Tinubu administration embarked on major reforms, it was clear that the adjustment would not be painless. Removing longstanding distortions in the economy required difficult decisions, particularly around fuel subsidy and foreign exchange.
The government’s argument has consistently been that short-term hardship must be weighed against the long-term consequences of maintaining an unsustainable economic structure.
Three years on, the latest figures suggest that the economy is responding.

Growth is being recorded across agriculture, manufacturing, oil and gas and services, while nominal GDP has climbed to ₦119.27 trillion, representing an 18.43 per cent increase from ₦100.7 trillion a year earlier.
These developments provide evidence that the economy is not merely surviving the reforms but gradually expanding on a broader base.

Stronger fundamentals

Perhaps more significant than the GDP figure are the wider indicators highlighted by the President.
Nigeria now has trade surpluses, foreign reserves are at their highest level in 17 years, credit ratings have improved and oil and gas production is rising.
These are important signals to investors and international markets.

An economy cannot attract sustainable investment if its external position is weak, its fiscal situation is unstable and its policy direction is uncertain. The improvement in these areas therefore strengthens the government’s case that the reforms are beginning to restore confidence in Nigeria.

The investment story is changing.

Tinubu’s claim that investors who previously left are returning is another important component of the administration’s economic narrative.
For years, Nigeria struggled to attract and retain sufficient investment because of concerns over foreign exchange liquidity, policy uncertainty and structural weaknesses.

A return of investment, particularly into productive sectors, could create jobs, expand government revenue and increase domestic production.
That is precisely the type of economic expansion the government needs to consolidate the gains of its reforms.

Beyond statistics.

The administration is also pointing to interventions designed to make the benefits of economic recovery more accessible.

Through NELFUND, more Nigerian students are gaining access to education financing, while CreditCorp is providing affordable credit to civil servants.

The government is also highlighting infrastructure investments in roads, railways and major highways as part of its long-term strategy to improve productivity and connectivity.
The significance of these investments goes beyond construction. Better infrastructure can reduce transportation costs, improve movement of goods and make businesses more competitive.

The next challenge—and opportunity.

Tinubu’s acknowledgment that economic growth must eventually be felt “at the dining table and in their pocket” is perhaps the most important part of his message.

The government now has an opportunity to convert macroeconomic stability into broader prosperity.
Its planned measures to reduce transportation costs, increase food production and expand relief programmes could help bridge the gap between economic recovery and household experience.

If production continues to rise and supply improves, the benefits of stronger economic growth could become increasingly visible to ordinary Nigerians.
Why the government is resisting reversal
Tinubu’s refusal to reverse the reforms is also understandable from the administration’s perspective.

After spending three years attempting to correct what it describes as longstanding economic distortions, abandoning the policy direction at the point when key indicators are improving could undermine the gains already achieved.

The President’s warning against returning to the “policies and distortions” of the past therefore represents a call for policy continuity.
For the government, the argument is straightforward: Nigeria has endured the adjustment period, the economy is stabilising, and the country should now stay the course long enough to reap the benefits.

Renewed Hope enters its delivery phase.

The latest GDP figures do not mean every economic problem has disappeared. Nigerians still expect lower living costs, greater employment opportunities and stronger purchasing power.

But the emerging economic indicators give the Tinubu administration a stronger platform from which to pursue those objectives.

The most compelling argument in favour of the Renewed Hope Agenda is that the government can now point beyond promises to measurable economic indicators.

The economy is growing faster, production is improving, investment confidence is strengthening and external reserves have risen.

The task ahead is to deepen those gains and ensure that growth reaches households across the country.
If the first phase of the Tinubu reforms was about stabilising the economy, the next phase must be about converting that stability into prosperity. And, based on the latest figures, the government has a stronger foundation from which to do exactly that.