ZONING: THE PHANTOM CORPOREAL IN THE PDP

By OluSeye Wabara Akanmu

I wrote a masterpiece in 2010 on the zoning issue which was luckily published in The Sun newspaper. I didn’t even know it had been published until that morning around 10 am of the publication day that I started receiving calls and text messages from people all over Nigeria, people I don’t know!

I was congratulated by many via text messages and calls (some lasting up to 10 minutes), some sent texts to abuse me and my generation with one calling me ” a child from a burst condom!”

I expected less because President Goodluck Jonathan was about contesting his first election after completing the tenure of the late President Yar’adua. His hard core supporters were vociferous in dismissing any zoning arrangement in the PDP against the North which was feeling pained and cheated that after President Obasanjo’s 8 years, Yar’adua was expected to spend 8 years but died less than 3 years in office. Thus, they wanted nothing of such. I remember the late Mallam Adamu Chiroma threatening to make Nigeria ” ungovernable ” if President Jonathan contested and won the 2011 election.

It was in the heat of this political upheaval I decided to contribute my view as a political scientist on the subject, that was just 3 years after I left the University of Ibadan!

You may kindly search online ” IF JONATHAN DECIDES TO CONTEST”, by Seye Akanmu-Bode, The Sun newspaper. You will see my views on it and importantly, some theoretical and foundations to the zoning issue.

Fundamentally, I said that the South shouldn’t deny the existence of zoning, rather, they should appease the North for GEJ to contest as it’s difficult to tell an incumbent not to contest when he has all constitutional rights to do so. Prophetically, I said that , ” the North is at the receiving end today, it may be the turn of the South tomorrow! “.

This is the tomorrow! If our constitution is amendable, why can’t the PDP constitution on zoning? I don’t want to go into the issue of whether zoning is in the PDP constitution or not but on realpolitik. Same empirical political analysis I gave years ago that it’s not easy to ask an incumbent to step down , but the South must placate the North!

The zoning was made a policy when the PDP exemplified by its former chairman, Chief Vincent Ogbulafor said that the party will rule for 60 years! Now, the party’s rule was truncated in just 16 years because it didn’t follow its zoning arrangement. The seething rage of the North in 2011 saw Buhari doing well in the North against GEJ but Tinubu galvanised the South West to give the former victory.

GEJ should have known his alliance with Tinubu was still important for him in 2015 but instead trusted the North who even in his party weren’t expecting anything other than power going Arewa! This is a digression anyway.

The APC is now the ruling party and this is the reality on ground. Like Gov. Aminu Tambuwal said to his southern colleagues, do they want just ” contest or winning” back power? Same is my question as a PDP member. The APC may also one day face this conundrum when it becomes an opposing party.

Now let’s look at some scenarios, if Atiku had won in 2019, would the South be asking for power shift in 2023?

If the PDP South gets the nod to contest in 2023 against the APC south and it loses the election, would it tell the PDP North not to contest again in 2027 because it’s supposed to be 8 years according to zoning?

Let’s shift to the APC for a moment, giving that a Northern PDP candidate wins the 2023 election, in 2027, would the Southern APC members tell their northern members not to contest because they haven’t tasted the office? Again, if the PDP should win in 2023 and rule for 8 years, it means the only president of the APC will be President Buhari. Would the APC South tell the North not to contest since they have never been in power?

You can’t tell your fellow politicians with constitutional rights and with massive self ascribed aura and confidence of mass popularity to win not to contest because of one conventional or time agreed zoning .

As I stated in ” If Jonathan Decides to Contest “, zoning or rotational presidency is desirable, it is only if it’s codified in the constitution. Any other arrangement is just like the agreement between the members of the famed ” Oroki Social Club ” of Oshogbo or the ” Urhobo Progressive Union “.

Any zoning arrangement in the PDP died a painful death the day GEJ lost. 2023 is about the most popular candidate and the best stratagem to win the election.
Popular candidates will always prop at different epoch. Zik though never became a prime minister or executive president but if not the military putsch of 1966, he would have sooner or later because his NPC coalition partner would have used common sense to give the power to him. MKO Abiola was the most popular candidate in 1993 that he defeated Tofa in Kano , ruffling the home boy advantage in politics! When it was time in 1999 to return to democracy, the North never contested the post with the South and saw President Obasanjo as the most popular candidate. Abubakar Rimi exercised his right to contest against the PDP decision to zone to the South but his northern brothers didn’t support his aspiration for equity and morality.

A popular candidate of southern extraction will surely emerge one day in the PDP, for now , I believe His Excellency, the former Vice President, the Wazirin Adamawa, Atiku Abubakar is the best candidate to return the PDP back to power in 2023. Any other arrangement is perdition for the party.

OluSeye Wabara Akanmu is a political scientist, a former aspirant for the Lagelu Constituency in the Oyo State House of Assembly , he is the convener, National Support Group, a Political Interest Group.