Nigeria’s Political Triangle: Lagos, Rivers, and Kano—A Pattern on the Verge of Breaking

By Sunday Oladapo
Nigeria’s political history is often written in patterns, alliances, and shifting loyalties, but few patterns have been as consistent—or as intriguing—as the divergent governance of its three most politically significant states: Lagos, Rivers, and Kano. For over six decades, these states have never been simultaneously governed by a single political party. Yet, with recent developments, that historical trend may finally be disrupted, potentially redefining Nigeria’s political landscape.
A Historical Overview
The story begins in the First Republic (1963–1966). At the time, Rivers State did not exist as a separate entity; it was part of the Eastern Region, governed by the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC). Kano, then part of the Northern Region, was under the control of the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC). Lagos, though a Federal Territory and not a state per se, aligned politically with the Action Group (AG), dominant in the Western Region. Even at this early stage, a clear regional-political separation existed, reflecting Nigeria’s ethno-political diversity and the localized strength of early political parties.
During the Second Republic (1979–1983), the divergence continued. Lagos was governed by the progressive Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), a party with deep roots in the Yoruba southwest. Rivers State, anchored in the Niger Delta, leaned toward the national ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Kano State, a northern stronghold, was under the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), led by the radical socialist-minded Aminu Kano. Each state reflected not just party preference but deep-seated socio-political ideologies and regional identities.
The Third Republic (1992–1993), though short-lived, maintained this separation. Rivers and Kano States were under the National Republican Convention (NRC), while Lagos was governed by the Social Democratic Party (SDP). This period demonstrated a complex political balancing act where national stability often depended on ensuring that no single party dominated across regions with divergent interests.
The Fourth Republic: Shifting Tides
Since 1999, Nigeria’s democracy has experienced both consolidation and turbulence. Lagos State has undergone multiple political transformations—from the Alliance for Democracy (AD) to the Action Congress (AC), then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), culminating in the All Progressives Congress (APC) after the 2013 mergers. Rivers State became a PDP stronghold, maintaining dominance for over two decades until December 2025, when Governor Sim Fubara’s defection to APC surprised many political observers. Kano, meanwhile, has been a political pendulum, moving between PDP, All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), PDP again, APC, and now the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
This long-standing divergence has not only been a political pattern but also a reflection of Nigeria’s complex regional identities. Lagos represents the commercial and cosmopolitan southwest; Rivers embodies the resource-rich Niger Delta with its activist political culture; Kano is a northern political powerhouse with deep historical and religious influence. The unique combination of geography, ethnicity, and political culture has ensured that a single party ruling all three simultaneously was almost impossible—until now.
Why 2027 Could Be Historic
The political chessboard is shifting. Should Governor Abba Yusuf of Kano State follow in Fubara’s footsteps and join the APC, Nigeria could witness a historic alignment of Lagos, Rivers, and Kano under one party. Such a development would be unprecedented in the nation’s history and could have profound implications for the 2027 elections, national policymaking, and inter-regional political balance.
Analysts suggest that this alignment could strengthen the APC’s national reach, potentially altering power dynamics and making regional coalition-building a more complex affair for opposition parties. At the same time, critics warn that a single-party dominance across these pivotal states could stoke political tensions, particularly given Nigeria’s history of ethno-regional sensitivities.
Conclusion
For decades, Lagos, Rivers, and Kano have told the story of Nigeria’s democratic resilience and regional diversity. They have demonstrated that political pluralism is not just an ideal but a practical necessity in a country of over 200 million people. Now, as history hangs in the balance, 2027 promises to be more than just another election year—it may become the year a long-standing political pattern is rewritten.