Anatomy of Wike’s endgame

By Azu Ishiekwene
 
When the row between Rivers State Governor, Nyesom
Wike, and his party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP),
spilled onto the streets after the party’s presidential
primaries in May, I argued that to solve Wike, one had to
first fix the candidate, Atiku Abubakar.
 
In light of Wike’s no-holds-barred interview last
Thursday, things may have fallen apart, irretrievably.
That interview, perhaps only comparable in seismic scale
and onomatopoetic resonance with Julian Assange’s
WikiLeaks, has shaken the PDP to its foundations. 
 
The fallouts may well remain the biggest threat to the
PDP’s electoral chances next year.
 
But what was the point, really? Was it to set the records
straight? To take his pound of flesh? To avenge the
betrayal of his ancestor – Peter Odili – sold down the
river under similar circumstances? Or just to bring the

roof down and, if possible, escape with the rubble as a
trophy? 
 
Wike is not done yet. Still, even in the midst of the
wreckage left behind by his last interview, the
inescapable question would be: what is his endgame?
 
I’m not sure his interview would significantly damage
either party Chairman Iyorchia Ayu or Atiku. Verbal
attacks that would damage politicians will kill them first.
And their gift for taking disasters in their stride gets even
better during campaign sessions when, to use the title of
Simon Kolawole’s imaginative new book, most people
would simply say, “It’s all politics!”
 
But even if Wike’s targets feel any discomfort at all, it still
doesn’t answer the question: what is his endgame?
 
My guess is that his objective is to severely damage both
the candidate and the party that neither would be worth
anything at next year’s poll. This might sound ridiculous,
since the state PDP has fielded at least 48 candidates,
believed to be his close allies, for next year’s election
under the party’s flag.
 

Wike is not a fool. If he thought he would be unable to
survive and make something for himself or his supporters
from the party – whole or in ruins – it’s unlikely that he
would play hardball. 
 
Since it’s too late to switch parties at this time, my guess
is that he would secure his base in Rivers State where he
appears to be very much in control at this time. After the
elections, he might for his spectacular labours of sitting
in and pissing in, then use his base to negotiate with the
party at the centre. That, of course, is assuming the APC
wins the presidency, otherwise he would be dead meat.
 
We saw this arrangement work before when Bola
Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) made a deal
with Goodluck Jonathan in 2011 to turn a blind eye
during the presidential election while securing Lagos
during the state election. For parties not separated by
ideology or principles, how Wike manages his post-
election affairs, even if he succeeds, might yet leave him
with a permanent label of “buyer beware.”
 
The conversation has, of course, not been framed in the
stark terms I have used here. Wike, who might have been
an excellent opposition leader in a parliamentary system,
has said that this is not about himself. 

 
According to him, he feels obliged to compel the party to
honour its constitution on zoning, particularly since Ayu
(a Northerner) accepted that he would step down, if a
northerner emerged presidential candidate.
 
Those on the other side say that was not exactly how Ayu
put it. According to them, he said he would step down if
the party (meaning the NEC) asked him to do so. In any
case, they argue, why is Wike complaining or, to use
campaign spokesman Daniel Bwalya’s phrase, playing
God? After all, not only did he bring former Chairman
Uche Secondus and later also instigate his removal, he
also brought Ayu!
 
Now, that is where the story gets interesting. Inside
sources informed me that Wike indeed brought Ayu, but
it was an assignment executed for him by his ally and
Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom. A source familiar
with what happened said Ayu had assured Wike at the
meeting in his house in Abuja that not on his watch as
chairman “will one Fulani succeed another”.
 
At that point, well before the primaries of course, Wike
had obviously told himself that he had the party exactly
where he wanted it: he would be the inevitable PDP

presidential candidate. But the last politician who kept
his word was the one who never gave it. 
 
When the sale of the party’s form started in March, it
became an open sesame. To forestall a Northern coup,
pro-Wike forces set up the Bala Mohammed committee
which then took on a life of its own. It spent months
looking for a secret in plain sight: that regardless of what
the constitution said, it would be an “open contest!”. The
rest, of course, is history.
 
But was there a chance that Wike and Atiku may have
patched things up, especially after the famous but highly
secretive London meetings? Improbable. 
 
Sources familiar with the outcome of the meetings said
even though Atiku seemed disposed to ditch Ayu, he was
concerned about a) the impact, especially so close to
elections, and b) that he might be unable to get the NEC
to do it. 
 
Of course, Wike allegedly assured him it wouldn’t be a
problem. He, Wike, had done it before and the head of
Secondus on a platter was proof. In case there was any
question about a viable replacement this time, however,

former Ondo State Governor, Dr. Segun Mimiko, was on
standby.
 
But there was an elephant in the room – the disposition
of the “owners” of the party. When Atiku returned to
Abuja from the London meetings and broached the
matter, the “owners” declined. They expressed the view
that Wike had crossed the line. He would be tackled at
the “appropriate time”. No deal. 
 
Two credible sources said the “owners” in question were
former military head of state, General Abdulsalami
Abubakar; former National Security Adviser, General
Aliyu Gusau; a former Director General of the State
Security Services, suspected to be Lawal Daura; and a
shadowy but immensely consequential figure at the Villa
likely to be Mamman Daura (President Muhammadu
Buhari’s relation). A media mogul in the PDP also lent his
voice.
 
Ayu is saved for another day not only by the vital
intervention of some of the “owners” of the party but
also by his “old boys’” network, reinforced by the
promise that either himself or former Senate President
Bukola Saraki could become the next Secretary to the
Government of the Federation, if the PDP wins.

 
Now, back to the question: what is Wike’s endgame? To
avenge his displacement from within while securing the
positions of his allies who are already carrying the PDP
flag into the next election. His destination – if not by
words, but by conduct – is APC. Everything in-between is
in translation.
 
And my guess is that he might not be a total stranger
there. Not only because the main parties are largely
different only in name, but also because some members
of his cabinet and allies are refugees from APC, a party
that has downgraded its funder-in-chief of yesterday,
Rotimi Amaechi, from Buhari’s campaign DG to Tinubu-
Shettima’s “adviser on infrastructure.”
 
Pundits may worry about the possible consequences of
Wike’s actions on the fortunes of the PDP in Rivers State,
and perhaps elsewhere that he may have clout. My guess
is that the combined effect of Labour Party’s Peter Obi
and Wike activities would prove quite daunting,
especially in the South East and South South that have
been the mainstay of the party in about two decades.
 
If we have seen anything in Nigeria’s politics in the last
23 years, however, we know that in the end, feuding

parties know where their interests lie, whatever pundits
may think. And, as we say in my neck of the woods, they
will be alright!
 
Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP