In 2023, Atiku, as PDP presidential candidate won 2 of the 17 states in the southern part of the country: Bayelsa and Osun states.

He is not running on that platform this time. He is going to contest on the platform of ADC.

The Bayelsa state governor who delivered the small but oil-rich state to him has been asked by his assembly members to leave the party for the APC and he will leave.

He indeed has only one vote but Atiku will understand how important that one vote is when ADC fails to make any significant impact in the state in the 2027 presidential race. He will not get 25% of the vote that will be cast in that state. And if a candidate who won a state in 2023 fails to get 25% four years later, then he’ll understand better.

PDP will also lose that state in 2027.

In Osun state, no matter what happens, ADC will not win the state. Rather, Atiku’s 11k margin in 2023 will turn to a big loss in 2027. Adeleke, if he remains in PDP or whoever APC presents in 2026 will most likely deliver the state to APC.

ADC will perform woefully in Cross River where Liyel Imoke is the leader of the coalition.

Akwa Ibom state is also already APC.

Josephine Anenih and Tom Ikimi can not pull Edo state for ADC where we have Oshiomole, Governor Okpebholo, Philip Shuaibu, and others.

I do not know who they are counting on in Delta state as Atiku’s running mate in 2023 has since followed Governor Sheriff to APC.

Rivers state suspended governor has since left the Atiku camp.

No one reckons with Uche Secondus and the former interim governor, Celestine Omehia in Rivers state, and even Amaechi who couldn’t deliver when he was not hungry.

The whole of SE will vote for Obi wherever he goes but he won’t get 90-95% they wrote for him this time, especially in Imo and Enugu states.

ADC will not have a significant number of votes in the South-West in 2027. PDP will even do better than them.

I do not see Atiku winning any state in the south in 2027. I do not even see him getting 25% in most of those states.

In the north, Lamido will not be able to deliver Jigawa state for ADC.

Another of his top men, Mark will fail to deliver Benue state.

Tambuwal will only succeed in depleting PDP votes in Sokoto state and that will not affect APC.

Malami is more of a political liability than an asset in Kebbi State.

Babangida Aliyu will be trounced by the network of Governor Bagu in Niger state.

El-Rufai will not be able to deliver Kaduna state. I have since noticed that no grassroots political mobilizer has joined him in the SDP since he joined the party. Posting Aregbesola’s acceptance speech as the national secretary of ADC will not give him victory in the Liberal State.

Plateau, Kogi, FCT, and Nasarawa won’t follow Atiku and his ADC. For Atiku himself to win Adamawa, he will have to do a lot of work.

PDP would have been a better platform but the party is in ruins and he doesn’t possess the ability, capacity and the will to fix the party due to his self-centeredness.

The truth of the matter is that these desperate men will end up making the 2027 presidential election a lot easier for the incumbent, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

SWA

Meanwhile, have you ever seen two conmen, two yahoo boys, two 419s trying to outsmart each other? I have.
Atiku Abubakar says that he will do only one term if he is given the opposition coalition ticket. Peter Obi also says that he will do only one term if he is given the opposition coalition ticket. Which way forward? Should Peter Obi trust Atiku Abubakar, and concede the ticket to him, believing that he will keep to his promise, or should Atiku Abubakar trust Peter Obi, and concede the ticket to him, believing that he will keep to his promise?
What I see are two conmen trying to fool and deceive each other. What say you?