2031 Ambitions ignite fierce contest for Tinubu’s 2027 running mate

As the 2027 presidential election looms, internal jostling within the All Progressives Congress (APC) over who will serve as President Bola Tinubu’s running mate has intensified—driven less by the upcoming vote and more by strategic positioning for the 2031 presidency.

Although the Presidency has indicated that President Tinubu will announce his choice of running mate after the APC convention, fierce lobbying and political maneuvering are already in full swing. Tensions flared recently during a North-East APC stakeholders meeting—originally intended to rally support for Tinubu’s second-term bid—which ended in chaos. Supporters of Vice President Kashim Shettima clashed with APC North-East Vice Chairman Mustapha Salihu for not explicitly endorsing Shettima’s candidacy.

Salihu later clarified that publicly backing Shettima would imply Tinubu had already made his choice, a move deemed premature given ongoing high-level consultations. Several APC insiders confirm that the President may ultimately opt for a different running mate—one who aligns more closely with the party’s long-term power rotation strategy.

At least four northern governors, senior lawmakers, and key political figures—including a former Speaker from Bauchi and a current cabinet member—are reportedly eyeing the vice presidency. Party sources say religious and regional dynamics are shaping discussions, with proposals to pick a Christian from Bauchi State seen as a possible bid to balance the ticket. However, others caution this could alienate core northern voting blocs in the North-East and North-West.

Analysts believe the real battle is about 2031, when Tinubu is expected to hand over power. Northern APC power brokers view the VP slot as a launchpad for the presidency and are keen to ensure Shettima doesn’t get a second term—fearing it would cement his frontrunner status in the next APC presidential primaries.

“There’s more at stake than 2027,” one senior party source told The PUNCH. “The running mate question is all about who gets the upper hand in the succession race post-Tinubu.”

Among those seen as positioning for 2031 is a senior minister from the North-East, who is reportedly favored by Tinubu’s inner circle as a potential successor. Allowing Shettima to continue as VP, some argue, could hinder this plan. Further complicating matters is Shettima’s strong rapport with the First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, a factor believed to work in his favor.

The jockeying has led to an intensification of behind-the-scenes negotiations, with rival camps lobbying governors, legislators, and party elders ahead of the convention. APC insiders also point to former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai as another potential 2031 contender. His exclusion from Tinubu’s government, they claim, was driven by fears that his rising political profile could overshadow others.

El-Rufai himself has accused National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu and Kaduna Governor Uba Sani of orchestrating a smear campaign to derail his presidential ambition. “This project of destroying Nasir El-Rufai is Nuhu Ribadu’s conception,” El-Rufai claimed in a February interview. “He wants to be president in 2031 and is eliminating potential rivals.”

Meanwhile, opinions within the APC remain divided over when endorsements should begin. The Adamawa APC dismissed calls to endorse Shettima, stressing that running mates are presidential decisions—not party nominations. “Only those who buy nomination forms can be endorsed. Deputies don’t fall into that category,” said state APC spokesman, Alhaji Mohammed Abdullahi.

Former Yobe Speaker Usman Sugum echoed this sentiment, calling the current lobbying premature and urging the party to focus on fielding candidates capable of delivering victory at the polls. He nonetheless maintained that the North-East should retain the vice presidency.

Political scientists disagree that the early power play is out of place. Prof. Tunde Adeniran and Prof. Shola Omotola argue that such positioning is inevitable in Nigeria’s political climate, where ambitions and alliances are constantly shifting.

Prof. Jideofor Adibe added, “The push to replace Shettima is not surprising. Nigerian politicians are always two steps ahead—already planning for the next election.”

In the midst of these developments, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin has distanced himself from campaigns urging Tinubu to consider him for the vice presidency. A group known as the Northern Nigeria Progressive Youth Assembly had championed his name, prompting a firm rebuke.

“This is not in our collective best interest,” Barau said in a statement through his media aide, urging supporters to rally behind Tinubu’s current administration and avoid premature political distractions.

Barau reiterated his loyalty to the President and stressed the need for unity as the APC navigates the complex political terrain ahead of 2027—and ultimately, 2031.