2027 Elections: Police Deploy Risk-Based Strategy to Secure 176,846 Polling Units

The Nigeria Police Force has begun preparations to secure 176,846 polling units ahead of the 2027 general elections, adopting a predictive policing and risk-analysis strategy to identify potential flashpoints and guide the deployment of security personnel.

Dr Abayomi Shogunle, Commissioner of Police in charge of Election Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation at the Force Headquarters, Abuja, disclosed this at the 2026 annual conference of the Guild of Corporate Online Publishers (GOCOP) in Lagos.

Shogunle said the police would use data-driven planning, intelligence gathering and multilayered security arrangements to prevent electoral violence and ensure peaceful voting across the country.

He gave the assurance during a panel discussion on the theme, “2027 Elections: Trust, Transparency and Shared Responsibilities”. The conference ended on Thursday, October 8, 2026.

According to him, the police have already commenced deployment preparations, with plans to ensure adequate personnel are available to manage security challenges before, during and after the elections.

Explaining the strategy, Shogunle said the police had incorporated academic research and crime-prevention models into election security planning, citing the governorship elections in Anambra and Ekiti states as examples.

“We found out that we needed to do different things. We brought in the academic angle as it is done in other countries. The Anambra State election was our first test,” he said.

He noted that the Anambra election was concluded in one day without reported shootings or killings, adding that voter turnout also increased.

Shogunle said the police applied the problem analysis triangle, a crime-prevention model that examines the relationship between the perpetrator, the victim and the absence of effective guardianship.

According to him, the approach helped security operatives identify and address factors that could create opportunities for electoral offences.

“For crime to happen, there are three factors that must come together: perpetrator, lack of guardianship, and the victim. We removed all those that were against election,” he said.

The police commissioner also disclosed that deterrence theory and intelligence-led operations would form part of the security arrangements for the 2027 elections.

He said the police adopted a multilayered approach during the Ekiti governorship election, taking into account the state’s proximity to neighbouring states, including Kogi and Kwara.

Shogunle added that election security management had become more complex, as elections conducted in a single state could attract outsiders whose activities might pose security risks.

He stressed that police operations would be guided by the law, particularly the legal provisions governing the announcement of election results.

The police’s security preparations come as political parties, electoral authorities and other stakeholders begin positioning for the 2027 general elections, with election security expected to remain a major issue in efforts to protect voters, electoral officials and the integrity of the process.

INEC, citizens and electoral credibility
Earlier, the conference chairman, Dr Olisa Agbakoba, SAN, described Nigerian citizens as the principal stakeholders in the country’s democracy and urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to ensure that the 2027 elections are free, fair and credible.

Agbakoba, a former president of the Nigerian Bar Association, also raised concerns about the proliferation of opinion polls, election projections and unofficial results circulated through traditional and digital media.

He questioned who has the constitutional authority to declare election results, highlighting the need for clarity over the distinction between official results announced by authorised electoral officials and projections or claims circulated by other sources.

The panel session featured Shogunle, Prof Tayo Popoola, Head of the Department of Mass Communication at the University of Lagos; Dr Adaora Onyechere Sydney-Jack, Creative Director of Gender Agenda and founder of WEWE Network Afrique; and Lanre Arogundade, Executive Director of the International Press Institute.

The discussion examined INEC Chairman Prof Joash Amupitan’s keynote presentation, which was delivered on his behalf by the Lagos State Resident Electoral Commissioner, Prof Ayobami Salami.

The conference brought together media professionals and other stakeholders to discuss the responsibilities of electoral institutions, security agencies, the media and citizens in building public trust ahead of the 2027 elections.