World Bank Report Validates Tinubu’s Reforms

….Projects 4.4% Growth Through 2028

President Bola Tinubu has welcomed the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, saying its findings demonstrate that his administration’s economic reforms are improving fiscal stability, boosting government revenue and laying the foundation for sustained economic growth.

The report, titled Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities, projects that Nigeria’s economy will grow by an average of at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028, while poverty is expected to decline gradually as economic growth outpaces population growth.

In a statement issued by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, the President said the report’s findings offered further evidence that the difficult economic decisions taken since 2023 were beginning to yield results.

Tinubu particularly welcomed the World Bank’s assessment that Nigeria’s poverty rate had stabilised for the first time since 2019, describing the development as an indication of progress towards economic recovery.

According to the report, Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period of 2025, despite the economic pressures arising from the conflict in the Middle East.

The World Bank also reported that inflation declined from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December of the same year. However, rising international fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict have slowed further disinflation, although the Bank projects that inflation could ease to approximately 12 per cent by 2028.

Nigeria’s external economic position also recorded significant improvements, with the current account surplus rising to $12 billion, representing 7 per cent of gross domestic product, in the first half of 2026, compared with $8.6 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Gross external reserves equally increased from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion by the end of August 2026.

The report attributed the improvement in government finances to economic reforms introduced since 2023, which increased federation revenues by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, with state governments emerging as the biggest beneficiaries.

It further disclosed that state governments increased capital expenditure by 151 per cent in real terms over the period, directing much of the additional funding towards roads, transportation, agriculture, energy and housing.

According to the World Bank, 29 of the 33 states assessed redirected more of their spending towards economic infrastructure, while real social spending per capita increased in all but one state.

The report also found that internally generated revenue grew in real terms in 31 of 35 states, while 21 states reduced their debt-to-GDP ratios between 2021 and 2025.

Nigeria’s overall public debt is projected to decline from 40 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026.

Reacting to the findings, Tinubu said the removal of petrol subsidies, unification of the foreign exchange market and improved fiscal discipline had strengthened public revenues, stabilised the economy and expanded the financial capacity of federal, state and local governments to invest in development.

He, however, acknowledged that more work was required to ensure that the gains from the reforms translated into improved living conditions for ordinary Nigerians, particularly through lower food prices and the creation of decent jobs for young people.

“The dividends of reform are becoming visible. But more work remains to ensure they fully translate into better living standards for every household, starting with lower food prices and decent jobs for our young people,” the President said.

Tinubu reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to sustaining the reforms while prioritising inclusive economic growth under the Renewed Hope Agenda.

He said the Federal Government would expand targeted cash transfers, which he stated had already reached more than 10 million households, while accelerating the adoption of compressed natural gas (CNG), improving agricultural productivity and widening access to affordable healthcare and quality education.

The President also urged state governments to manage their increased revenues responsibly and channel more resources into projects that directly improve citizens’ welfare, particularly in healthcare, education and other essential services.

He commended the Economic Management Team, led by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, alongside state governors and other stakeholders, for their cooperation in implementing the reforms.

Tinubu assured Nigerians that his administration would intensify efforts to ensure that economic growth produces broader benefits for households and businesses.

He said the Renewed Hope Agenda 2.0 would focus on accelerating the delivery of shared prosperity and improving living standards across the country.

The statement was signed by Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy. AI