Why PDP will lose Delta to APC in 2023 if party fields Ijaw candidate

There is presently fire on the mountain in the Delta State chapter of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of which if the party leaders are not careful, the PDP in the State will not just collapse and lost to the major opposition in the State, the All Progressives Congress (APC), but lose relevance totally.

This fire on the mountain means that the battle for the governorship ticket of the PDP in Delta will not be straightforward for the Urhobos of Delta Central Senatorial District after all as the Ijaws of Delta South Senatorial District have said it is their turn to govern the State come 2023.

The fire on the mountain in the Delta State PDP, as it is, is being fanned by no other but by Governor of Delta State, Senator (Dr) Ifeanyi Okowa; by recent comments attributed to him when at a media pally he inferred that there was no agreement on zoning by the PDP in the State.

Governor Okowa sparked the controversy when he was addressing a rumour that he had already reached an agreement with Ijaw leaders to ensure that his successor comes from the Ijaw ethnic nationality in Delta South as a payback for their support to his administration.

“A gentleman’s agreement is an agreement that is not written. I want to believe that that is what it is supposed to be. But, there has been no formal meeting in which a gentleman agreement was reached as of today. It means that whatever we are doing and talking about today, it is about what is fair, what is equitable, and how to define what is fair, and to define what is equitable, and justiciable.

“But the real truth is, when the politics start, politics will be played. But I know that God Almighty will take the decision of who will be Governor. At some point in time, as a party, we will sit down to look at issues, to find out what truly is fair, what truly is justiciable, and what should equity really mean. Where is the Governorship going? I think if you pray, and you ask God, God may reveal it,” Governor Okowa said.

To better understand Okowa, one has to consider a piece written by the Delta State Governor’s Executive Assistant on Communication (EAC), Dr Fred Latimore Oghenesivbe. In the piece the EAC shared via his official Facebook profile, Dr Oghenesivbe exposed Okowa’s thinking when he said there was no gentleman’s agreement on zoning in Delta State.

In the piece, Oghenesivbe arrogantly described proponents of PDP zoning in Delta as “political gladiators or musketeers”, and predicted a collapse of the PDP in the State. He insinuated that the zoning arrangement was breached during the PDP primaries of 2015 when certain other ethnic nationals contested the PDP governorship ticket with Okowa. He also made a reference to compensation of some sort in a succinct manner.

For reference purpose, the piece by Okowa’s EAC reads thus:

“In Delta State, the issue that will be in the front burner is that of power rotation. By power rotation it is meant; an arrangement by some political gladiators or musketeers within a political party, agreeing to a system of what some political commentators call “turn by turn” in the leadership of a local, state or federal government.

“The focus in power rotation is “politics, power and leadership” wherein both the weak, the strong, majority and minority stakeholders have equal right and opportunity to control the affairs of government and to provide good governance through political arrangements.

“Whenever any agreement is breached by either of the parties; it is either that compensation is paid or sanctions are activated. The Breach may also impliedly revoke the agreement. What will be the best way possible to remedy breach of any gentleman agreement in the political system or scheme of things?

“To answer the above questions will require the political leaders within the party to come together as one family, so as to probe into “what is fair, what is equitable and what is justiceable” and then agree on the solutions that will best heal the open wounds of any of the parties, if any.

“And if you struggle to get what you ought to get with ease based on any gentleman agreement or arrangement, the reason for the infractions and/or paradigm shift in that regard must be addressed and put to rest. This is very important for both sides, and the time to make that move is now.

“Therefore, it will be premature at this time to foreclose all possibilities, as far as power rotation is concerned in Delta PDP. It is not yet time for name calling as can be seen on social media by members of some political family trees, until all efforts to reconcile the musketeers within the party ends in fiasco, and when the centre can no longer hold.

“And as rightly declared publicly by the state governor, Senator Dr Ifeanyi Arthur Okowa, it will require the assemblage of leaders of PDP in Delta, to dialogue and play politics. This is very important, not the profitless chorus of “you are a betrayal”.

“To play politics in this context may also include; a holistic review of past political arrangements across board, including the vexed issue of deliberate infractions or the alleged breach of the much talked about “power rotation agreement” in the state, from 1999 to 2019.

“It follows that party leaders from the three senatorial districts must of a necessity come to a round table interface, and reach an acceptable compromise that will be beneficial to all parties concerned, going forward.

“This is certainly the way to go. It is doable, and it can only be done through the party, PDP, and not via a political pressure group (referring to Delta Central 2023, a political lobby group by Chief Ighoyota Amori christened DC-23) with a rigid or written constitution.

“The two major camps in this scenario are formidable, and it will do us no good if the two elephants are provoked to a political and electioneering fight. It is certainly not the best option, because the GRASS may suffer and one of the most skilled elephant will emerge victorious. When this happens, the many years of quality friendship and political partnership may be strained beyond redemption”.

From Oghenesivbe’s piece as represented above, it became obvious that it is either Governor Okowa is being childish, stubbornly and needs to be pampered or he just wants to ruin, completely the indefatigable political structure of the PDP in Delta since he has nothing to lose in 2023. It is childish because the Governor has no business opening wounds of 2015 that has since healed in 2019 when the zoning arrangement of the PDP was fully accepted to retain him in power.

Already, Okowa’s comments have sparked a harmattan fire and cockroaches, antelopes, snakes, scorpions, crocodiles, and what have you, have been set loose to torment the PDP.

The Governor’s comments have emboldened the Ijaws of Delta South to congregate a consultative meeting to drive their point home that they equally deserve the governorship ticket of the PDP in the 2023 turn since Okowa through his EAC still perceive from 2015 that there was a breach of the PDP zoning arrangement.

Meanwhile, the arguments the Ijaws presented, gunning for the governorship seat, were captured in a communiqué signed by Alaowei Broderick Bozimo, Chief Godspower Gbenekama and Elder Edmund Tiemo, which was made public at the end of the consultative meeting that was held at BB Hotel and Suites in Warri, Delta State.

At Governor Okowa’s beck and call, the Ijaws summoned the effrontery on Saturday the 22nd day of May to assess their socio-economic and political situation since the creation of Delta State in 1991 till date, and in 2021, it finally dawned that they have made huge sacrifice and contribution to the socio-economic sustenance of Delta State, stressing that despite the human and economic contributions of the Ijaws to the sustenance of the State, their communities do not have commiserate infrastructural development.

The Ijaws argued that they have been active players in the socio-economic and political affairs since the days of Western and Mid-Western regions, Bendel State and now Delta State, and that their leaders were at the forefront of the struggle for the creation of Delta State from the defunct Bendel State, and have over the years strongly supported other ethnic nationalities of the State to produce the Governor of Delta State, and that even though there was no agreement on power rotation, all the three senatorial districts have produced the Governor of Delta State, but that they, assuming a senatorial district,  were yet to do so.

The consultative meeting of the Ijaw people, according to the communiqué, took note of the fact that Chief Dennis Osadebey of the present Anioma was the Premier of the defunct Mid-Western Region when it was created in 1963 with Chief Jereton Marierie from Urhobo as Governor.

The communiqué reads in part further: “In the present Delta State, the Ijaws massively supported the emergence of Olorogun Felix Ibru and Chief James Ibori from Urhobo ethnic nationality, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan from the Itsekiri ethnic nationality and Senator (Dr.) Ifeanyi Arthur Okowa from the Ika (Anioma) ethnic nationality as Governor.

“In the spirit of fairness, equity and brotherhood, we appeal to the other ethnic nationalities of Delta State to support a candidate of Ijaw extraction to become the Governor of Delta State in 2023. The meeting urged Ijaws to work in collaboration with other ethnic nationalities in the State to achieve the resolution to produce the next Governor of Delta State because we cannot do it alone”.

However, at the end of the day, the Delta State Governorship election in 2023 will be a battle to be won between Ijaw versus Urhobo or Urhobo versus Okpe/Sapele/Uvwie (OSU) in the PDP, and PDP vs APC.

Already no fewer than four Urhobo sons, including Olorogun Emmanuel Aguariavwodo, Olorogun David Edevbie, Olorogun Kenneth Okpara, Olorogun Kenneth Gbagi, and a well respected Okpe man from Delta Central, Chief James Augoye, the former two-term Commissioner for Works, have indicated interest to contest the governorship seat under the PDP in 2023.

Among the Ijaws from Delta South senatorial district jostling to succeed Governor Okowa are Okowa’s deputy, Deacon Kingsley Otuaro, and the current senator representing Delta South, Senator James Manager.

Meanwhile, for the APC in Delta, most of the political heavyweights are from Delta Central, and from all indications, the ruling party at the federal level will most likely field an Urhobo or OSU man from Delta Central as a candidate to contest the 2023 governorship election. Definitely, the APC will not look to Delta North for a candidate for obvious reasons. However, Delta South is probable for the party, but who?

If the PDP should field an OSU or a core Urhobo candidate and the APC also fields the same, all from Delta Central, both the PDP and the APC will share the spoils from Delta Central that is, and PDP will go ahead to win Delta North and Delta South, to ultimately win the 2023 governorship election based on the confidence Deltans have on the PDP zoning arrangement.

However, if the PDP should field an Ijaw candidate or any other candidate from any other senatorial district aside from Delta Central for that matter, the party leaders and members would be shocked to their bone marrows in the 2023 election. E go restrict airflow. This is because the APC will definitely field a candidate from Delta Central, and hitherto win Delta Central hands down, and also win the handful of Urhobo votes from Delta South, win with a high margin in Isoko and Itsekiri, share the spoils from Delta North, to ultimately win the election.

Recall that Okowa from Delta North Senatorial District in 2015 took over as Governor from former Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan, who is from Delta South. Before them, Chief James Ibori was Governor from Delta Central.

The rotation of the governorship seat among the various senatorial districts gave rise to the zoning pattern of the PDP. This is the confidence Deltans have in the PDP. Already, the general impression in the mind of Deltans is that the next Governor of the State would come from Delta Central come 2023, owing to the arrangement and where the rotation started from in 1999 with Ibori. Anything that alters this formula in the mind of Deltans spells calamity for the PDP.

To quote Okowa’s EAC, “to be candid, power rotation not only promote friendship and enhances mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, unity and fairness; but also bind people of different ethnic nationalities, religions and sociocultural backgrounds together, if strictly adhered to”.

Hitherto, the zoning pattern has been etched in the mind of Deltans. Therefore, it will be difficult for any party to defeat this zoning arrangement of the PDP in Delta State, especially given that the political configuration favours the people. Common thinking, therefore, dictates that if the PDP in Delta should alter this formula already etched in the mind of Deltans, it will be an utter failure for the party. The highly-rated, indefatigable political structure of the party in the State will shrink, cave in like in a tsunami and collapse like the Wall of Jericho. Hopefully, Governor Okowa will shelve his ‘childishness’ or whatever plan it is, and agree to the collective gentleman arrangement of the PDP in order, to maintain the relevance of the party in the State.

Meanwhile, Deltans await the decision of the State PDP (whether to respect the senatorial district zoning by deciding on a Delta Central candidate or decide on an Ijaw candidate, resulting in ethnic zoning in the State as opposed to zoning by the senatorial districts) in order to better understand how to prosecute the 2023 governorship election of the State.

While the 2023 governorship election in Delta State will not be a straightforward battle to be won on a platter, Delta State politics have not been rocket science.