Why Atiku May Never Become Nigeria’s President

By Nick Agule

Atiku Abubakar may never become Nigeria’s president, not for lack of ambition or resources, but because of a consistent absence of sound political strategy.

In 2003, the presidency was virtually within his grasp, yet he yielded it to OBJ. Atiku failed a basic political test – If you draw a gun, you must fire otherwise you’re as good as dead.

By 2007, Atiku faced the consequences of not firing in 2003! OBJ ensured Atiku’s defeat because Atiku mismanaged his relationship with his boss. It was a fatal political miscalculation – you don’t openly challenge a sitting president and expect to succeed him in an immature democracy like Nigeria’s.

In 2011, Atiku repeated the same error. Rather than backing GEJ and negotiating a succession deal for 2015, he jumped into the race against an incumbent. Once again, strategy gave way to emotion.

The 2015 election offered the North a legitimate claim to power. Yet Atiku joined the APC, where his chances against the more popular PMB were slim. Had he instead struck a deal with GEJ to remain in the PDP, he could have run on that platform and possibly defeated PMB.
Alternatively, had he run under a 3rd force, the election could have been a 3-horse race – PMB, GEJ & Atiku – giving him a stronger pathway to victory.

By 2019, Atiku again stood a fair chance to unseat PMB given the general disillusionment with the govt of the day. But he squandered goodwill through unguarded remarks (such as promising to sell NNPC to his friends) which did not help his image issues with corruption, and by failing to rebuild the PDP into a broad-based, united opposition. He took the electorate and the party for granted.

Then came 2023 – Atiku’s gravest strategic blunder. After 8 years of kinsman in power, he still sought to succeed him. That was political suicide. The mood of the country clearly favoured power shift to the South. A wiser move would have been to back BAT, building leverage for a credible shot in 2031. But with political heavyweights like Wike now entrenched in BAT’s camp, even that future looks closed to Atiku!

At this point, Atiku should gracefully retire from active politics and assume the role of a kingmaker. He has already achieved what few Nigerians have – rising to become Vice President, the nation’s number two citizen, and amassing considerable political and economic influence. That legacy is secure.

In sharp contrast, BAT’s political strategy reflects the power of patience, timing, and structured ambition. Unlike Atiku, BAT did not throw himself into every electoral contest. After leaving office as Lagos State Governor in 2007, he deliberately stayed back, building alliances, grooming successors, and expanding his influence beyond the South-West. Through the evolution of the AC, ACN, and eventually the APC, BAT became the architect of Nigeria’s most formidable political coalition in the 4th Republic.

While others sought immediate power, BAT played the long game – supporting others to win while consolidating his own leverage.

By the time he declared for the presidency in 2022, it was not an act of desperation but the culmination of a 20-year political blueprint. His rise was therefore not accidental; it was a masterclass in political patience and strategic calculation.

It’s time for Atiku to mentor, not contend.

Nick Agule is a political analyst with a passion for sustainable democracy.