Opinion: El-Rufai and the Perils of Playing Speed Chess in a Long-Game Arena

By Sunday Oladapo

Malam Nasir El-Rufai has never lacked intelligence. From the political turbulence of the Olusegun Obasanjo/Atiku Abubakar era to the high-stakes maneuvering before the 2023 elections, he proved himself a sharp strategist, unafraid of confrontation and adept at political brinkmanship. But politics evolves, and so do its battlegrounds. What worked in one era does not automatically translate to another.

Today’s terrain is fundamentally different. It is one thing to attempt to outwit Bola Tinubu the party tactician; it is another to outmaneuver Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the sitting President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The dynamics of power change once the levers of the state are in hand. Add to that the presence of Nuhu Ribadu as National Security Adviser—a figure widely regarded as meticulous and strategic—and the chessboard becomes far more complex.

El-Rufai is not Muhammadu Buhari. He cannot be. Even Buhari, with his formidable cult-like followership and years in opposition, avoided reckless baiting of the ruling PDP government during his opposition days. Buhari played a patient game, contesting multiple times, recalibrating alliances, and conserving political capital. He did not talk himself into political traps.

In contrast, El-Rufai’s political style has often been defined by speed and sharpness rather than patience and restraint. His tongue moves as quickly as his mind. But long-term political ascendancy—especially at the presidential level—requires more than brilliance. It demands emotional discipline, strategic silence, and the ability to concede short-term ground for long-term gain.

Tinubu exemplifies this long-game approach. After completing his second term as Governor of Lagos in 2007, he did not rush into premature presidential bids. Instead, he quietly consolidated his political machinery, expanded his progressive base, nurtured protégés, and forged alliances across regions. He was relentless yet measured. When he burned bridges, he ensured there was at least a narrow footpath left for possible reconciliation.

El-Rufai’s trajectory since 2023 suggests a different temperament. His fallout with the Tinubu administration appears closely tied to permutations around the 2031 presidential race. By seemingly identifying Ribadu as a rival early on, he may have accelerated political tensions that could have been managed more subtly.

Since then, the optics have not favored him. From strained relations with his successor in Kaduna, Uba Sani, to positioning himself as a visible face of opposition coalitions shortly after Tinubu’s inauguration, to his political movements between platforms such as the SDP and ADC, the pattern has been one of urgency rather than consolidation. Media appearances meant to score points have, at times, resulted in self-inflicted setbacks.

Eight years is a long time in politics. Alignments shift. Alliances fracture and reform. Public sentiment evolves. Had El-Rufai chosen to retreat strategically after being dropped from the cabinet—rebuilding from Kaduna, mending fences, and cultivating quiet influence—he might have been better positioned for future permutations.

Politics at the highest level is not speed chess; it is marathon chess. It rewards those who understand timing as much as tactics. El-Rufai’s greatest challenge may not be intellectual capacity but temperament. If he cannot master the art of patience and calculated silence, his undeniable political gifts may ultimately be undermined by haste.

In a game where timing is everything, sometimes the boldest move is not to move at all.