Nigeria at a crossroads as global tensions and uncertainty deepen
Nigeria is facing a decisive moment in its relationship with the international system as escalating security challenges, economic instability and rapid technological change push the country toward greater strategic independence, cooperation and more nuanced diplomacy. This was the consensus of experts who spoke at a seminar organised by the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR).
The Director-General of IPCR, Dr. Joseph Ochogwu, said the seminar was designed to broaden public understanding of shifting global realities and Nigeria’s efforts to reposition itself through strategic autonomy and a cooperative foreign policy. He noted that the country is increasingly engaging both multilateral and bilateral platforms to strengthen its security, economic and diplomatic standing.
According to Ochogwu, the seminar’s theme could not be more relevant as Nigeria navigates an international environment characterised by changing power structures, economic uncertainty, technological disruption and complex security threats.
He described the present global order as inherently contradictory—marked by rising conflicts on one hand, and growing opportunities for collaboration through diplomacy, regional integration and multilateral engagement on the other.
Ochogwu explained that Nigeria’s foreign policy direction is anchored on strategic autonomy, with a focus on turning national vulnerabilities into sources of resilience through partnerships aligned with global realities. He added that insights from the discussions would be forwarded to the Minister of Foreign Affairs and relevant government agencies to inform policy decisions.
Professor Istifanus Zabadi, Director of Research and Innovation at Birmingham University, argued that Nigeria must redefine what stability means in a rapidly evolving global context. He stressed that stability should no longer be understood simply as the absence of violence, but rather as a state’s capacity to contain and manage conflict without allowing it to overwhelm society.
Zabadi warned that Nigeria’s heavy dependence on militarised responses to insecurity has produced limited, short-term results while failing to address the political, economic and social foundations of conflict. While acknowledging the necessity of military action in some situations, he said it cannot substitute for governance reforms, human security and preventive engagement. Overreliance on force, he cautioned, risks alienating communities and creating new security threats, especially when social sectors such as education, healthcare and livelihoods are neglected.
He further identified cooperation as Nigeria’s most underutilised security asset, calling for improved inter-agency collaboration, stronger community involvement and the revitalisation of institutions across all levels of governance. According to him, lasting stability depends not just on ending violence, but on building institutions capable of managing disputes and fostering trust, free from partisan political divisions.
Also speaking, Dr. Olalekan Babatunde, a scholar in security and conflict studies, said Nigeria’s security challenges must be viewed within a broader global framework. He explained that terrorism, banditry, separatism and communal violence in Nigeria are increasingly shaped by transnational forces, global economic pressures and geopolitical shifts.
Babatunde described Nigeria’s conflict environment as complex and interconnected, encompassing insurgency, climate-induced resource disputes, identity-based agitations, transnational banditry and communal clashes. Addressing these challenges in isolation, he said, would not yield sustainable peace.
He pointed to climate change, arms proliferation, transnational terrorist networks and digital platforms as global factors exacerbating local insecurity. Desertification and migration, he noted, have intensified competition over land, while illicit weapons flows and online radicalisation have further complicated Nigeria’s security landscape.
Babatunde also highlighted Nigeria’s dual position as both a country affected by conflict and a key regional stabiliser. He said the way Nigeria handles its internal security challenges has significant implications for regional stability, trade, migration, diplomacy and international confidence, underscoring the need for deeper cooperation with regional, continental and global partners.
The seminar concluded that achieving stability in modern Nigeria requires a blend of strategic autonomy, cooperation, governance reforms and sustained international engagement. Participants agreed that true national resilience is defined not by the complete absence of violence, but by the ability to manage conflict, build trust and uphold Nigeria’s role as a stabilising force in Africa and a responsible actor in the global community.
