Expanding JAS/ANSARU–JNIM violence signals growing jihadist threat in Niger–Kwara corridor

By: Zagazola Makama

Recent attacks by terrorists linked to Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS), Ansaru splinter factions and the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) have brought into sharp focus a troubling expansion of jihadist violence into Nigeria’s North-Central zone, with Borgu Local Government Area of Niger State emerging as a new flashpoint.

On Jan. 9, 2026, terrorists operating along the Borgu axis attacked Damala village, a Kambari farming settlement in Borgu LGA. The assailants killed four residents, looted foodstuffs and livestock, and subsequently withdrew towards the Kainji National Park.

Zagazola Makama report that the attack followed a similar modus operandi to the Jan. 3, 2026 massacre at Kasuwan Daji, where villagers were killed and abducted in a coordinated night raid.

Deep findings indicated that Borgu and neighbouring Agwara LGAs have increasingly become areas of operation for a Saddiku-led Boko Haram Terrorist (BHT) faction working in collaboration with JNIM fighters infiltrating from the Sahel.

The terrorists are believed to be exploiting the Liptako–Gourma tri-border forest corridor, which stretches across parts of Mali, Niger Republic and Burkina Faso, before filtering through Benin Republic into the Kainji National Park ecosystem.

Zagazola noted that the vast forested terrain of the park, combined with weak surveillance, has made it an attractive rear base for terrorist regrouping, logistics and cross-border movement. Borgu has been under sustained pressure, with attacks occurring at regular intervals.

On Nov. 21, 2025, gunmen abducted students of St. Mary Catholic School, Papiri, in Borgu LGA. The students were later released in batches on Dec. 8 and Dec. 22, 2025. It was revealed whether ransom was paid or not. However, Intelligence linked the abduction to JAS handlers operating from Ali Ngulde camp in the North-East.

This was followed by the Jan. 3, 2026 Kasuwan Daji attack and an earlier Jan. 5, 2026 assault on a Mobile Police (MOPOL) checkpoint at New Kali village, also in Borgu LGA. This point to a high probability of continued and potentially more daring attacks within Borgu LGA and adjoining areas over the next two weeks.

There are also growing concerns that the violence could spill into Kwara State, particularly Kaiama and Baruten LGAs, which border Kainji National Park. The terrorist groups have had sufficient time to regroup and reposition following recent security operations in parts of Niger State, increasing the likelihood of an operational surge.

“The pattern suggests deliberate expansion rather than isolated criminality,” a counterterrorism expert said. “This is ideological jihadist violence, fused with banditry and cross-border logistics. The Damala attack has further reinforced assessments that JAS/Ansaru factions and JNIM elements now maintain established bases within the Kainji National Park.

The systematic raiding of livestock and foodstuffs, analysts say, reflects the groups’ dependence on local communities for sustenance and their reliance on the park’s ecosystem for concealment, mobility and survival.

Military strategists describe the park as the terrorists’ operational centre of gravity, and, paradoxically, their main vulnerability.

Zagazola suggested that a sustained , intelligence-driven air campaign targeting known hideouts, logistics routes and assembly areas within the park could significantly degrade their combat power.

Such an approach, would fix terrorist elements in place, disrupt their supply chains and create favourable conditions for coordinated ground operations to restore security and prevent further expansion into Kwara State and deeper into the North-Central zone.