El-Rufai’s Biggest Miscalculation And The Illision of Political Invincibility

By Peter Omoneyi

For years, Nasir El-Rufai carried himself as one of Nigeria’s most influential politicians. He rarely shied away from controversy, spoke with confidence on virtually every national issue, and built a reputation as a man who never backed down from a political fight. It was easy to assume that if he ever found himself in serious political trouble, a large number of Nigerians would rise to his defence.

That assumption now appears to have been misplaced.

Following his arrest and detaintion amid investigations by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), many expected a wave of public outrage. Some anticipated protests against the Tinubu administration. Others predicted a groundswell of sympathy.
Instead, the country barely paused.

Apart from statements by political allies, family members and a few loyal circle of supporters, there has been little sign of widespread public mobilisation. Whether one agrees with the investigations or not, the muted public reaction has become a story in itself.

The episode exposes an uncomfortable truth about politics: visibility is not the same as popularity. A politician may dominate headlines, command television interviews and trend on social media, yet still struggle to inspire ordinary citizens to rally behind them when it matters most. Real political influence is measured not by the volume of one’s voice but by the depth of public trust.
In many ways, this outcome should not be surprising.

El-Rufai built his political brand on confrontation. He challenged opponents aggressively, courted controversy and often spoke with little regard for how his words would be received. That approach earned him a loyal following among those who admired his bluntness, but it also alienated many Nigerians who saw him as divisive. Over time, constant controversy can generate attention without necessarily building lasting public goodwill.

Nigeria itself has also changed. Millions of citizens are battling inflation, insecurity and declining living standards. For many people, the daily struggle to put food on the table outweighs the political fortunes of any former governor. Public attention is increasingly consumed by economic survival rather than political drama.

None of this should be mistaken for a verdict on the legal case. El-Rufai has denied all allegations against him, insisting that the investigations are politically motivated. Like every Nigerian, he is entitled to the presumption of innocence, and only the courts can determine whether the allegations have merit.

His supporters have not remained silent. Opposition figures, including Atiku Abubakar, have criticised the prosecution and argue that it is part of a broader political strategy ahead of the 2027 elections. Their position shows that El-Rufai still commands respect within important sections of Nigeria’s political class.

But political endorsements are not the same as public sympathy.

Perhaps the biggest lesson from this episode is that political relevance can not survive on reputation alone. Influence has to be renewed continually through public confidence and credibility. Once that connection begins to weaken, even the most powerful politicians can discover that the crowds they believed would stand behind them have quietly moved on.

The courts will ultimately decide El-Rufai’s legal fate. The public, however, may already be delivering a different verdict: political power is temporary, public goodwill is fragile, and no politician should mistake prominence for enduring popularity.