Donald Trump will lose 2020 election in a landslide defeat

A new model has predicted that President Trump will lose the 2020 election by a landslide due to the floundering economy amid the coronavirus crisis.

The national election model released by Oxford Economics on Wednesday predicted rising unemployment and inflation will prevent Trump from being reelected. 

The study predicted that the president would win just 35 per cent of the popular vote, which marks a sharp turn-around from the group’s pre-coronavirus prediction which put Trump at winning 55 per cent of the vote last fall.

In 2016 he lost the popular vote, gaining 46.2 per cent to Hillary Clinton’s 48.1 per cent, but secured victory by taking Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by razor-thin margins, and Florida too. 

In contrast in November, Oxford Economics predicted the coronavirus recession will see the president suffer a ‘historic’ defeat, common for sitting presidents running for reelection amid an economic crisis. 

The model suggests he would keep Florida but lose his other gains, then lose Iowa and Missouri too. 

‘It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump,’ the report concluded. 

The model has proven accurate in its predictions every year since 1948, except for 1968 and 1976, and works off the assumption that the U.S. economy will not have bounced back from the pandemic by this autumn, with unemployment rates above 13 per cent, and household incomes six per cent lower. 

‘The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression,’ the report said. 

‘An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6% below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November.’

According to the group, the economic factors point to a clear Democratic win come November, although voter turnout and the evolution of the pandemic could be crucial in determining which way it will swing. 

The model is based on GDP falling by 4% by the end of 2020 compared to 2019, the Washington Post reported – although that figure is itself optimistic and assumes a strong recovery in the second half of the year. 

The model is close to, but not perfectly aligned with, aims set out by Biden’s campaign last Friday.

It said it was  betting that as many as 17 states could be up for grabs in November’s election, with President Donald Trump’s coronavirus response making places like Arizona more competitive. In contrast Oxford Economics predicted the sunbelt state would stay red.

‘There will be battleground states that have never been battleground states before,’ said Biden’s campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, in a strategy briefing for reporters on Friday.

O’Malley Dillon included Arizona, Texas and Georgia among states that have been inhospitable for Democrats but that could power the former vice president to success.

The Republican incumbent enjoys advantages of his own in the race, including fundraising and digital campaigning.