Aso Rock’s Kano Dilemma: Abba Is Not the Prize

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is someone known to have a very big ego, but beyond that, he also has a formidable organic structure who are at his beck and call, one he built based on the Kwankwasiyya ideology. And I think it is now clear to Mr. President that the defection of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf alone does not really mean much if Kwankwaso does not move with him.

Abba Kabir Yusuf is a governor, yes, but his political weight in Kano is still largely tied to the goodwill of Kwankwaso. That was pretty obvious from 2019 and 2023, when he finally won the election. Since becoming governor, there has been little to show that he has built an independent structure strong enough to deliver massive presidential votes on his own.

If Abba joins the APC, and he is lucky to get the party’s ticket, he might narrowly retain his seat and help the party hold Kano going into 2031, but he does not have the brute force to swing Kano for the president in 2027. Without RMK behind him, that kind of pull just is not there, he doesn’t have the capacity.

And the president knows this. He needs good votes from the Northwest, and he needs very strong numbers from Kano in particular. As things stand today, the only political machine that can realistically deliver those numbers is a united NNPP under RMK. Abba Kabir Yusuf on his own can influence outcomes, but not at the scale required for a presidential election.

Knowing the kind of person RMK is, his conditions to join the APC will not be cheap. Full control of the Kano APC structure will be on the table, and so will replacing Abba with his preferred candidate. That is not guesswork; it is consistent with how he has always operated politically. Unless, of course, what many of us suspected earlier turns out to be true, that RMK and Abba are simply playing a game with all of us.

Because if they are not, then Kwankwaso will definitely come for Abba. He has shown, over time, that he does not tolerate disloyalty, and once he decides you cannot be trusted, that is usually the end of the road.

So the questions here are, Will the Villa sacrifice Abba for RMK? Will it forget RMK and go with Abba alone and lose Kano votes? Or will they take Abba into the APC and hand him over to Barau and co, who will fight him with everything they have to protect the grip they have on the party structure and make sure Abba does not get the ticket? Or Abba and RMK just playing games?

For now, we can only watch how it all unfolds. One thing is certain, this one will be very interesting, and we are here with our notes.